Preseason Rankings
Abilene Christian
Southland
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#173
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.7#181
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#207
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#148
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 26.8% 17.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 15.1
.500 or above 84.1% 93.7% 76.8%
.500 or above in Conference 91.5% 95.2% 88.6%
Conference Champion 24.5% 30.9% 19.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.8%
First Four3.1% 2.3% 3.7%
First Round20.1% 26.1% 15.5%
Second Round1.7% 2.6% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Neutral) - 43.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 22 - 5
Quad 412 - 314 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 142   East Tennessee St. L 67-69 43%    
  Dec 05, 2020 340   Tarleton St. W 80-63 94%    
  Dec 09, 2020 14   @ Texas Tech L 60-79 5%    
  Dec 22, 2020 46   @ Arkansas L 68-82 11%    
  Jan 02, 2021 236   Lamar W 74-67 72%    
  Jan 06, 2021 339   @ Houston Baptist W 90-79 83%    
  Jan 09, 2021 303   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-65 65%    
  Jan 16, 2021 319   SE Louisiana W 81-68 86%    
  Jan 20, 2021 246   @ Sam Houston St. W 75-73 55%    
  Jan 23, 2021 285   Central Arkansas W 83-74 79%    
  Jan 27, 2021 136   Stephen F. Austin W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 30, 2021 336   @ Incarnate Word W 75-64 81%    
  Feb 06, 2021 236   @ Lamar W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 10, 2021 339   Houston Baptist W 93-76 93%    
  Feb 13, 2021 303   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-62 82%    
  Feb 20, 2021 319   @ SE Louisiana W 78-71 71%    
  Feb 24, 2021 246   Sam Houston St. W 78-70 73%    
  Feb 27, 2021 285   @ Central Arkansas W 80-77 61%    
  Mar 03, 2021 136   @ Stephen F. Austin L 71-76 33%    
  Mar 06, 2021 336   Incarnate Word W 78-61 91%    
Projected Record 13 - 7 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.1 7.9 7.1 2.7 24.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 7.0 6.9 3.5 0.6 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.1 5.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.1 4.2 0.9 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.5 3.0 0.7 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 0.7 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.1 6.3 9.3 11.6 13.9 14.6 13.8 11.6 7.7 2.7 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.7    2.6 0.1
15-1 92.6% 7.1    5.6 1.4 0.0
14-2 68.6% 7.9    4.8 2.7 0.4 0.0
13-3 36.6% 5.1    1.7 2.5 0.8 0.1
12-4 10.5% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-5 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 24.5% 24.5 15.0 7.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.7% 64.6% 64.3% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.0%
15-1 7.7% 52.8% 52.8% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 1.0 0.2 3.6 0.0%
14-2 11.6% 43.8% 43.8% 14.6 0.0 0.6 1.6 2.0 0.7 6.5
13-3 13.8% 30.5% 30.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.4 9.6
12-4 14.6% 20.7% 20.7% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 11.5
11-5 13.9% 14.2% 14.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 11.9
10-6 11.6% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.1 0.6 10.9
9-7 9.3% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3 9.0
8-8 6.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 6.2
7-9 4.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.0
6-10 2.5% 2.5
5-11 1.1% 1.1
4-12 0.5% 0.5
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.4 4.8 6.6 6.6 78.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.5 3.4 58.6 31.0 3.4 3.4